Wednesday, 28 August 2013

FREECharts.com Stock Market Has Jitters; Asia Joins Germany & The Suisse Demanding Their Gold

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Stock Jitters Helps Bonds, Asia Takes Gold Home 

August 28, 2013
In This Issue
The Death of the PC
September E Mini
December Silver
October Crude Oil
Trend Compression & Crossover Systems

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Dear Reader,

 

First, let me congratulate Tim and his new bride as they honeymoon in Mexico. Thank you for the emails I have received after my summer absence.

 

The last couple days have seen some wild activity in the grains and energies as well as some action in the indices and the treasuries. We will look at each of these markets more in detail in just a minute.

 

While we can't really compare our current leader to Nero, if he played a fiddle we could. I am not sure if that would be fair to either Nero or Barry but one thing is for certain, neither seemed to be too concerned about what is happening in respective countries while they were seeking entertainment for themselves whether it be fiddling or golfing.

 

The durable goods numbers dropped 7.3% which certainly has not been an inspiration for traders who seem to be seeking some home for their hard earned dollars. And it isn't just them. It seems the Asian central banks are looking to repatriate their gold holdings from around the world. With the public demand for gold as well as Germany and Switzerland demanding the return of their gold from the Fed, it stands to reason why we have been seeing some strong movement in the precious metals.

 

What is it, we may ask ourselves, inspiring the Asians, Germans, and the Swiss to request their gold be returned to them and redeeming their gold from ETFs reportedly while both China and Japan are selling/redeeming significant amounts of treasuries? What do they know that we are not being told? Apparently something to keep from seeing bank runs here in the US.

 

Several banks would suffer dramatically and four of the largest in the US could experience some real difficulty. It seems Moody's is already reviewing the current rating for four mega banks including JP Morgan, Goldman Sachs, Wells Fargo, and Morgan Stanley. If we listen very carefully, we can hear Generous Ben muttering to himself as he conjures $85b plus per month and Barry and the whistle of his golf clubs as he does not rest until every American who wants a job can apply to be his caddy.

 

Ben does not seem to recognize inflation and what it is doing to the real backbone of our economy, the middle class wage earner. Barry is willing to spend many millions not just for another vacation, but to kill some of those nasty Syrians who may have used particularly distasteful weapons on their own people killing 355 people while Chicago has apparently hit the 500 mark for murders just this year. One has to wonder if Barry will be sending war ships into Lake Michigan to deal with those Chicagoans his pal, the major, can't seem to get to heel.

 

Well what does all this have to do with the markets and our trading, you ask? Plenty. The wreckless and irresponsible money policies of Ben and the inept, corrupt, and betrayal of the fiduciary responsibilities of the current president impact what the market we are investing does. They are influencing the current value and future value of our investments through taxation, incredible stupid laws, hiring folks who are equally incompetent, lying to the public about their involvement and their ability to deal with global issues, and perhaps involving us in yet another conflict where we have no consititutional right to be.

 

Without congress approving, we are not to go and depose a leader in Libya nor Iran, and certainly not Syria.

 

If we, even for a moment, believe the actions of these village idiots has no impact on our investments, perhaps we should just take a look at crude oil prices, which we will shortly. With a price reaching $112.24 today, maybe we should be rethink the whole idea that DC doesn't impact trading or our portfolios.

 

There is a reason why gold is pushing so hard to the upside and oil is rising so fast. It is because we have mental midgets making the decisions that just about any suburban 16 year old would be embarrassed to admit to.

 

Few have had the benefit, if it is one, of inheriting great wealth. For nearly all of us, we have had to work for decades to accumulate what we have even while carrying the moochers and parasites. Just as a ship occassionally has to get the hull scraped, so does a culture such as ours.

 

Waiting and wondering and hoping for the plan of this regime to improve America could be a long wait. Nothing has improved for the majority of Americans and the trajectory we are on doesn't seem show promise for a brighter future either.

 

What good does it do to have a stock market pushed up artificially when at some point much of the gains are just going to have to go to taxes to service the nations interest and principle of our growing debt?

 

The culture of corruption and lack of accountability has allowed this regime to create and environment that through silence and the apparent turning of blind eyes which ultimately has become so far away from the America you and I grew up in. Government agencies that use the beloved IRS to interfere with the historic traditions and functions of our elections, the NSA to spy on virtually every phone call and then to find out this very agency has employees who are using their access to spy on former spouses and people they just have a hankering to screw around with.

 

These people are the lowest forms of trash America has to offer. When they are rooted out, they should be publicly flogged, tarred & feathered, and shunned by the American public for their betrayal.

 

Unless and until these kinds of people no longer can make policy decisions for the public, what we are seeing these days will continue. If this does continue, we will see a brain drain and a financial drain as the brighter folks and the wealthy move to Canada, Europe, Asia, Australia, New Zealand, or to some other location where they are allowed to enjoy the fruits of their labors and the benefits of the application of the minds they have been blessed with. We will be left with more and more of the dumb and the lazy, which seems to be a little over half the voters right now.

 

 

 

 


 

 

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September E Mini 

 

 The stock market seems to be in a bit of a lull. Perhaps waiting to see what the leader does in regards to getting us involved in yet another military confrontation. If oil goes up much farther for any sustained amount of time, there will definitely be a drag on the market.

 

September E Mini  

 
The trend continues to point down as does the stochastics indicator. The RSI is somewhat neutral but it doesn't look like this market is very strong at the moment. I suspect we will hear more chatter about injecting more money by the Fed.

 

In as much as many of the full time employed in America, while employment is nearly at a dismal 30 year low, BarryCare will soon begin impacting the economy and employment in a more pronounced manner as employers cut hours of full time workers and firms near the 50 threshold will look to become one of the 49ers, as they are now being labeled.

 

With durable goods off 7.3% and housing beginning to slow, none of that looks good for the economy or the stock market. I still expect a slide soon to the 1380 mark which would be approximately a 22% pullback.

 

With folks walking away from the stock market for the moment, the bonds have definitely been the beneficiary. It is reported only about $40b of bonds were sold by China and Japan. If that number increase dramatically, bonds and the dollar could see some serious moves to the downside.

 

 

September Bonds 

  
The 9 dma is still pointing up and the 18 dma is beginning to turn slightly up. The RSI is sideways and stochastics is beginning to flag. I would interpret that as investors are losing interest and confidence.

 

Interest rates are moving up and I suspect bond prices will be coming down unless the stocks slide further and faster.

December Silver


This is a market that is being overlooked by many. For the moment, gold is getting a lot of attention because the Indians and the Chinese are buying everything they can get their hands on. Beware of countries stocking up on enormous amounts of food, energy, and tangibles such as gold. They are showing signs of concern we should all pay attention to.

 

Silver is benefitting from the surge in precious metals and the concern over the viability of the dollar long-term. Should inflation or actually hyperinflation occur, having a few silver coins might not be a bad idea.

 

I prefer silver over gold for having a little on hand due to its flexibility and a less concentrated form of wealth. If one had to barter with gold, it would be very difficult for everyday items where silver is in denominations that are more reasonable and still a solid hedge against the lunacy of Ben and Barry.

 

December Silver

 

On this chart I included the ADX which is an indicator showing the strength of a trend whether up or down. This would indicate the trend is still pretty strong while stochastics is flagging and the RSI would indicate this is a market that may very well be overbought for the moment.

 

The 18 dma is also showing signs of near term trend change unless we see a number of days of strong upside push. Even with a higher high today, I am not convinced silver is heading higher any time soon as the range was good today but the close was at the low of the day and the high could not be held.

 

In this case, I would have to agree with the indicators and submit this market is due for a pullback to the 23.90 area. 

October Crude Oil


If you are looking to trade crude oil for longer than a few hours or maybe a day, I would recommend looking to other markets. As far as I am concerned, this market is trading totally on a war premium right now and technicals go out the window when a news flash can completely turn your normal technical work upside down and inside out.

 

Prices up here do not bode well for the "recovery" the regime and its media machine keeps chanting. Other than day to day blips on the economic radar that quickly vanish, I don't see any long- term encouragement we are anywhere near a recovery.

 

Although the first shot could push these prices a lot higher, when the Americans sail away, crude could drop like the proverbial rock.

 

October Crude Oil  

 

  With a high over 112 and a close a couple bucks lower, perhaps we are seeing some trader exhaustion or some serious profit taking. In any case, these indicators are almost meaningless to me as this is a market trading on news and the chartist is at a terrible disadvantage. Now it would be just hunches. If taking a flyer is the strategy of the day, just use solid money management and I would suggest NOT holding a position in this market overnight.  

Current Trading Trend Compression & Crossover Systems

 

I have been testing two of my systems and wading through hardware, software, and data problems for the past number of weeks and now am beginning to employ my two systems. I had been looking at ranges for as much as a 30 to 60 day period. With a market that is being pushed politically, the results were not what I had hoped so I am going to employ systems that depend on much shorter time frames and using trailing stops.

 

Last night my systems indicated shorts on some currencies but markets did not open in my favor so I did not execute my orders. Tonight the TC indicates a long trade in the Pound, the Euro, and the Suisse. I would not execute all these trades as a rally in the dollar would put all these trades on the defensive so I will have to pick just one early this evening and see if we can get in. I may place all the trades and cancel the others as soon as one gets filled and is moving in our direction.

 

At present, only Lee and Bart are aware of the TC system but this week I plan to create a newsletter just for clients that will explain in more detail what I am doing. When you see the method to the madness, so to speak, I think you will appreciate these systems and their potential.

 

After I am in trades, I will alert everyone where we got in and they can follow the trades. I will also alert you when I exit the trades with a recap of where we entered and where we exited.


If there is a stock or commodity you have a question about, let me know. I will try to get back to you as quickly as possible and perhaps include your question in the next commodity newsletter.

By the time I am finished doing my research, scouring charts, and writing most of these newsletters I am just about brain dead. Going back and reading them sometimes can make me cringe and sometimes laugh when I see my spelling and grammar. Neither of which have ever been my strong points. Thanks for overlooking these. 

Sincerely,

 

Robert Biggs
Robert Biggs
FREECharts.com
Disclaimer: There is substantial risk in trading futures and options on futures. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. You may make money or you may lose money regardless of whether you or an industry professional manages your account.
  

 

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