Will Tech’s Black Swans Reverse These Charts?

Apple (AAPL – NASDAQ), Microsoft (MSFT – NASDAQ)

Friday, August 23, 2013

On Wednesday, we published a report on Tech stocks that included chart analysis on both Apple (AAPL – NASDAQ) and Microsoft (MSFT – NASDAQ).

However, since then, the tech world has been rocked by two bizarre “Black Swan” events.

On Thursday, the entire NASDAQ exchange was shut down for hours – probably because of an illicit “glitch” in AAPL that cost the stock as much as 1.5% in a matter of moments.

And on Friday morning, the only thing that could possibly help MSFT happened: CEO Steve Ballmer announced he would step down in a year.

Did these events invalidate our charts?

AAPL 082313

Bottarelli Research Tip#1: In our report, we warned that: “AAPL is stalled at the collision point between the old falling trend and the new rising trend. If it can’t beat this barrier, shares will almost certainly tumble back toward $450.” And if you look at this updated chart, you will see that this analysis holds up perfectly. Indeed, AAPL’s “fluke” failure came at the exact inflection point we warned of. AAPL must beat this resistance node if it hopes to move on.

MSFT 082313

Bottarelli Research Tip #2: We have repeatedly warned that MSFT’s troubles resulted from putting a Proctor & Gamble (PG – NYSE) assistant product manager in charge of a major tech company: “Advanced software and hardware simply isn’t laundry soap.” So, while we can’t claim to have predicted MSFT’s +8.8% pop, we did point out that losing Ballmer was the only way out for MSFT. But you know what? They still won’t pick a successor for a year, which is plenty of time to make another billion dollars worth of mistakes. So, we’re going to stand by our recommendation and suggest that you short the dickens out MSFT at these prices. How’s that for sticking to our guns?

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