Friday, 30 August 2013

FREECharts.com The Trend Compression Explained

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What Are The Trend Compression & Crossover Systems?

August 30, 2013
In This Issue
The Death of the PC
September E Mini
December Silver
December Wheat

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Dear Reader,

 

Let's think of the markets as a massive railroad system across the country making stops at hundreds and hundreds of destinations and going back and forth.

 

A train may start out in Phoenix, go to Flagstaff, stop off in Las Vegas, head on to Denver or Salt Lake City. These routes are symbolic of trends in the markets.

 

One does their analysis and that serves as our "train schedule" but unfortunately there is some uncertainty as to whether the train will actually leave Flagstaff and head to Las Vegas.

 

We use the information we have available to do some technical analysis and hope we are on the right train if we want to get from Phoenix to Las Vegas. The trend train pulls out of the Phoenix station and heads to Flagstaff. We have a little profit in our trade.

 

We stay on the trend train through Flagstaff hopeful our next destination is Vegas. We arrive in Reno. Now we can either stay on the train or hop off having decided we have made a profit and will now await a train we are more certain will take us to Vegas or back to Flagstaff.

 

The trend train is boarding so we hop on after doing our analysis and find ourselves in Minden, NV. We knew if the train went to Minden, we would get off the trend train as that is our stop loss and will await another train that may take us to Vegas representing going long the market or Flagstaff which would represent shorting the market.

 

The course these train trips makes is like the market trends. The market can only go up, down, or sideways. When the trend train begins going one direction, we want to hop on as the train is beginning to pull out of the station and get off at our profit objective. If the trend train goes in another direction than we had planned for, we exit before we are taken all the way across the country.

 

We are simply one of the many passengers riding the trend train and the more traders joining the train, then it stands to reason the trend train will pick up steam and continue on to further destinations. This can be good it the trend train is going in our direction or damaging if we don't exit when we recognize the train is taking us further away from our destination.

 

When the train looks like it could be a trip from Phoenix to Vegas, perhaps it has to make a little stop along the way to pick up passengers, freight, or fuel. We watch it and when it pulls back but the overall destination remains what we believe to be likely, we ride out oscillations as this may indicate a trend train consolidation where more passengers, freight, and fuel may strengthen the trend train to make the trip all the way to Vegas, our profit objective.

 

When we were leaving Phoenix, if we ended up in Tuscon, perhaps we offload rather than sticking with a train that may take us to San Diego or El Paso, which would take us way away from our destination.

 

This is the Trend Compression System. A trend is sought out and then when the trend has a brief pullback but the longer term trend remains pointing in the direction we want to go, we hop aboard as the train looks like it is leaving the station continuing it's trend.

 

By ourselves, we can't fuel the train. The more traders that jump onto a market trend, the trend should accelerate and gain strength which can be measured using indicators like stochastics, moving averages, the Relative Strength Index, and the ADX.

 

The Cross Over System is like a railroad switching yard. In any case, we want to find trends and stick with them as much as possible, using good money management and the closer we get to our destination, the more likely we may step off the train should it begin to roll back down the mountain. As much as possible, we want to continue to either move in our direction of get off the train by exiting a trade.

 

These are two of the systems I am employing and will be introducing additional systems and explaining the Cross Over System in more detail in the near future so be sure to take a look at the coming newsletters and use the forward button below to pass them along to your friends.

 

Regardless of what system used, there are opportunities to make money and there is also risk of loss. Always plan a complete trade including stops and profit objectives and have it scripted and employed when initiating a position.

 

 

 


 

 

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September E Mini 

 

 As you can see by the chart below, this market is not convinced which way it wants to go although the longer term trend still remains.

 

September E Mini  

 The ADX is an indicator of trend strength. This is not an indicator of direction. One may use stochastics and the RSI for that. As we can see, the trend lines are down in the top graphic and the ADX is increasing.

 

This would tell me the downtrend is building momentum. For the most part, stochastics has been pointing down and today's trading has caused it to flag somewhat. The RSI seems to be pointing down slightly. We very likely could see 1600 early in the week.

 

With stocks weakening and traders looking for a home for their money, it could be treasuries that are the beneficiary but one could not tell by today's price action.

 

September Bonds  

 The very short term trend has turned up but look at the ADX. It is coming down telling me this rally may be running out of gas. Stochastics and the RSI are pointing up but the range today was narrow, a significantly higher high could not be achieved and held, so Monday could be very interesting for this market. When and if the pullback comes, I think we should see 131 20 pretty quickly. 

 

 

December Silver


There was a lot of excitement for a couple days in both gold and silver but the market fundamentals just don't look very good as copper looks to make another multi month move to the downside, perhaps as low as 200.

 

Demand for silver remains very strong and even with the slight pullback, we may have significant upside should the bonds come down again as the result of foreign sales or even domestic sales, or perhaps the potential downgrade of some banks Moody's is eyeing for potential downgrading.

 

If we are led into another conflict in a country that has absolutely no economic value to America, the flight to safety could push bonds as well as metals much higher.

 

December Silver 

As you can see in the chart, the ADX is still gaining ground and the RSI as well as the stochastics are pointing down. I would expect a slide to the 2300 area pretty soon and then perhaps all the way to 2230 before we see a consolidation and a turn back up, short of any ME/Syrian news or a significant blow to bonds or the dollar. 

December Wheat


I have been watching December Wheat for a couple of days. It looks to me like it wants to go up but the turn has not been completed just yet.

 

December Wheat 

Although the price has bounced, the indicators are not telling me this trend change is for real just yet so to avoid getting caught on a spike, at least as much as I can avoid the spike, I will give this another day at least.

 

You can see the ADX is weakening and the RSI as well as stochastics are pointing down. I don't feel we will see wheat below 630 but before I hop on the Wheat Train to the upside, I would like to see a stronger confirmation the price is going to go up for a while.

 

It looks like it could happen by the middle of the week and when it does, I would like to be ready to jump on board but for now, it is a wait and see.  


If there is a stock or commodity you have a question about, let me know. I will try to get back to you as quickly as possible and perhaps include your question in the next commodity newsletter.

By the time I am finished doing my research, scouring charts, and writing most of these newsletters I am just about brain dead. Going back and reading them sometimes can make me cringe and sometimes laugh when I see my spelling and grammar. Neither of which have ever been my strong points. Thanks for overlooking these. 

Sincerely,

 

Robert Biggs
Robert Biggs
FREECharts.com
Disclaimer: There is substantial risk in trading futures and options on futures. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. You may make money or you may lose money regardless of whether you or an industry professional manages your account.
  

 

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